Critical and rare earth minerals, and the industrial base around them
Independent research on who produces them, who depends on them, and the businesses that serve both sides.
Building for the physical world is how society actually moves forward. I work where technology meets the real economy. And right now that means the materials underneath all of it.
Seventeen elements and a handful of minerals beside them are the lifeblood of almost everything built since 1980.
The fiber carrying this page to you. The MRI that finds a tumor. The coating that lets a jet engine run hotter than the melting point of its own blades. The chip in everything. The primer in a rifle cartridge. The drug that treats prostate cancer. None of it works without them, and none of it has a substitute.
Most coverage treats this as a magnet story, because magnets are where the geopolitics is loudest. Magnets are maybe a third of it. And nearly all of that coverage is about mines, while the part that's actually constrained sits three steps downstream.
This covers the whole chain: who sells, who buys, and the businesses that serve both. That third layer is fragmented, mostly owner-operated, and almost entirely unmapped. It's also the only part of this chain a person can buy into without a sovereign wealth fund, which is what I'm trying to do.
Part I, The materials
- 01 The seventeen elements What each one actually does. Magnets, MRI contrast, jet engine coatings, the fiber optic backbone. Plus the balance problem: why opening more mines can't fix the heavy rare earth shortage.
- 02 The value chain Seven steps from dirt to finished system, what the material is worth at each one, and the fourteen everyday technologies with no substitute. Value multiplies a thousandfold. And China owns the middle.
- 03 The other five Tungsten, gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite. Same shape of problem, different chains. And three of the five can't be mined on purpose at all.
Part II, The players
- 04 The allied market map Who sells outside China at every stage, which allied countries hold what, and who buys it across ten end markets. Defense, space, drones, wind, EV, robotics, motors, electronics, medical, refining.
- 05 The China map The other 90%. Two state groups, a quota system that sets national output by decree, an export license regime used as leverage. And where China is itself exposed.
Part III, The money
- 06 Who's buying in critical minerals Every private equity and strategic deal I've found, with dates and terms. Two distinct patterns most coverage confuses. Plus the move that wasn't a transaction at all.
- 07 Somebody is already buying the industrial base A public company quietly rolled up the calibration labs. A private operator did five motor-repair deals in a year. Almost nobody in those industries noticed, and I only found out by getting it wrong first.
Part IV, What isn't known
About
- · Why I'm doing this Boeing, Intel, Intel Capital, SecurityScorecard, Corvic. And how fifteen years in mission critical industries led here.
- · How this research works What it covers, the standards it holds to, what it refuses to do, and the disclosures. Read this before deciding whether to trust any of it.
- · If you're thinking about selling Written for owners, not about me. The first conversation, what happens to your people, what I won't do, and what your business is probably worth.
If you know this industry from the inside, I'd like to talk. Operators, retired operators, distributors, engineers, people who've sold a business in this space. Especially if you think something here is wrong. That's the most useful call I get.
matt@stonehammer.ai