05
The China map
Every Western market map, including mine, shows the small fraction of this industry that isn't China. This is the other side. Two state groups, a quota system that sets national output by decree, and an export license regime that has become the primary instrument of leverage.
Last updated 2 August 2026 · Click any entity for detail
The shape of it
Roughly 70% of mining, 90% of separation and refining, and 93% of sintered magnet manufacturing. Those three numbers escalate as you move downstream, which is the whole point. The position was built deliberately, in that order, over four decades.
The structure is not a market. Two state-owned groups hold the quota. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources set annual extraction and separation limits, split between light and heavy. Output is an instrument of policy before it is a response to price.
1, The two state groups
Consolidated from six groups down to two. Light and heavy are split between them, roughly along a north/south line that follows the geology.
2, Where it comes out of the ground
Two entirely different geologies producing two entirely different element mixes. This is the single most important thing to understand about the sector.
3, Separation, metals and magnets
The part the West is trying to rebuild. Listed magnet makers here supply the global auto, wind, electronics and robotics industries.
4, The control architecture
Quotas govern how much exists. Export licenses govern where it goes. The second has done most of the work since 2023.
5, Where China is exposed
Worth stating plainly, because most Western coverage treats the position as unassailable. It isn't, and the vulnerabilities are specific.
Read this map against the timeline, not as a snapshot. The export license regime has changed direction four times since April 2025. New controls, expansion, suspension under the November 2025 truce, then entity-specific action against named US firms in June 2026. The accommodation expires 10 November 2026 and Treasury has said it is not in a rush to extend. Anything on this page describing the current rules has a short shelf life.
Where this is thin. Chinese company-level data is harder to verify than Western equivalents and much of what circulates in English is secondhand. Production shares vary meaningfully by source depending on whether they count mining, separation or magnets, and whether Myanmar feedstock processed in China is counted as Chinese output. I've used ranges where sources disagree and would not put any single figure in a memo without checking it against the original.
Research and opinion. Not investment, financial, or legal advice. · Matt Stone · Thinking about selling? · matt@stonehammer.ai